Washington Empty of Politicians, Staffers; All Campaigning

An Election Night Guide

SIGMA in New Orleans

SIGMA/NPN & X-Games

WASHINGTON EMPTY OF POLITICIANS, STAFFERS; ALL CAMPAIGNING

It seems that every elected official, and at least 99% of all political appointees and Congressional staffers, are out on the campaign trail. Virtually nothing is happening in Washington, so we have nothing to report. Next week we’ll have lots to talk about. Today, it’s all about the election tomorrow (Tuesday), and the SIGMA meetings in New Orleans in 2 weeks!    

AN ELECTION NIGHT GUIDE

There will be lots of commentators offering prognostications and interpretations on election night. Here are some general tips to help you cut through the clutter and get early indications of how the races are going.

7:00 pm: Polls close in 7 states plus DC. If Bush is called the winner of either Michigan or Vermont, it probably means it’s all over for Kerry. If Kerry wins any of the other 5 states (Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, or Indiana), it’s probably the end of the line for Bush. Except for Michigan, a prolonged “too close to call” in any of the other 6 states probably spells trouble nationwide for the candidate expected to carry them (Michigan is expected to be close).

7:30 pm: Polls close in 3 states. No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. North Carolina is considered part of Bush’s “must win” base. West Virginia could go either way, and will matter if the electoral vote is extremely close – something that is quite possible.

8:00 pm: Every state east of the Mississippi River except New York and Wisconsin are closed by now, as are Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. If Bush carries either New Jersey or Pennsylvania, it’s hard to see Kerry winning. The big prize is Florida – essential to Bush last time, and considered essential to both sides this time. New Hampshire and Missouri are the only other 2 states considered “in play” in this cluster – New Hampshire will a significant factor only if Bush carries it, and Missouri only if Kerry wins there.

9:00 pm: 11 more states complete voting between 8:30 and 9:00 pm, including the big states of Texas (considered certain for Bush) and New York (certain for Kerry). Watch for how Wisconsin and Minnesota go (Kerry probably needs both ) as well as Colorado and New Mexico (both are considered tossups and could tip the balance in a close contest).

10:00 pm: Only Iowa and possibly Arizona are “in play” of the 5 states closing polls at 10:00. Kerry probably needs Iowa, and Bush is counting on Arizona.

11:00 pm: The rest of the continental US ends voting at this hour – with California, Washington, and Oregon the big prizes, all expected to go to Kerry by fairly wide margins, and the small states of Idaho and North Dakota expected to go to Bush by wide margins.

Midnight: Alaska and Hawaii close; counting is all that’s left.

Presidential Race, Generally: Because of what happened 4 years ago in Florida, networks may be a little gun-shy about calling states quite as quickly based on exit polling. Thus, it may take longer to learn the winner than usual even if the race isn’t as close as it now appears to be.

Senate Races: Republicans currently control the Senate by one vote (plus the Vice President, to break a tie). Thus, Democrats would need a net gain of 2 Senators (or 1 plus a Vice President) to take over. It will be difficult for them to do so, as they have 5 retirees to only 3 Republicans. The latest polls indicate a sure Republican pick-up in Georgia and a sure Democratic pick-up in Illinois. Democrats have 2 other likely pick-ups – defeating Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and winning the Republican open seat in Colorado. However, they seem poised to lose Democratic open seats in both Carolinas, Florida, and Louisiana, as well as losing incumbent Minority Leader Daschle in South Dakota. The only other seriously-possible gains for Democrats are the open seat in Oklahoma or a defeat of the Republican incumbent in Kentucky – both considered fairly long shots. Only if several of these races go unexpectedly Democratic will control of the Senate change.

House Races: With 435 House members, all up for election, the outcome should be more unpredictable here than in any of the other races. It isn’t. Most House districts are now drawn so they aren’t really competitive between the parties. So unless there is a beneath-the-radar groundswell that no polls are detecting, expect Republicans to retain control of the House – possibly gaining or losing a few seats marginally. If numbers start coming in showing a significant departure from that expectation, you’re sure to hear it from the broadcasters.

Get Out and Vote!!! Before you settle back to watch the results, be sure you played your part and cast your ballot!    

SIGMA IN NEW ORLEANS

It’s just a couple of weeks until the SIGMA Annual Meeting – plus several ancillary events – takes place in New Orleans. The convention is Nov. 12-14, with related events starting as early as Nov. 10 and ending as late as Nov. 16. Go back to the SIGMA homepage for links to information on the various meetings! Some last-minute updates:

The complete convention program book – with details on educational sessions, a nearly final schedule, and rosters of registrants (by name and by company) – is now available by  clicking here.

Due to security considerations, the last day to sign up for the ConocoPhillips’ Alliance Refinery Tour is this Wednesday, Nov. 3. No substitutions after that date either. We may sell out before then, so act quickly!

Total registration for the convention has reached 527, with a final count of around 560 expected.

The SIGMA/NPN/OPIS Site School is now sold out at 40 registrants, but we can still take a few more for the SIGMA/EMI Fuel Buying Masters Program (26 currently registered).

There is also still time – and space – to sign up for the Ultra-Low-Sulfur Diesel Implementation Workshop, co-sponsored by SIGMA, API, EPA, and others, immediately following the convention, on Nov. 15-16.

We’re still concerned about the availability of hotel rooms – especially on Friday and Saturday nights – so if you have to cancel your planned attendance, please release your room to Mindy McAllister at the SIGMA office (703-709-7000) rather than directly with the hotel That way, we can be sure the replacement in the room is a SIGMA participant rather than someone from the general public.     ■

SIGMA/NPN AND X-GAMES

Have you signed up for the NPN/SIGMA Winter Management Conference in Aspen/Snowmass Village yet? If not, you should act quickly. Here’s why:

The 2005 Winter X-Games will be in Aspen/Snowmass, Colorado from Saturday, January 29 through Tuesday, February 1, 2005. The NPN/SIGMA Winter Management Conference is there January 30 through February 2, 2005. You probably get the drift. Hotel rooms in the area are SURE to sell out. Only by making your reservations now can you be assured of a room. We lose a part of our room block today, and lose all of it the end of this month!

Of course, this coincidence is not just a problem – in terms of hotel rooms. It’s also an opportunity! The annual Winter X Games are the premier winter action sports event in the world, featuring athletes from across the globe competing in Moto X, Xtreme Ski, Xtreme Snowboard and Xtreme Snowmobile. This is a great chance for SIGMA members to bring their families and combine great education at the conference with great action on the slopes.

 
SIGMA Weekly Report November 1, 2004 © Copyright SIGMA, 2005