November 4, 2002

LEGISLATIVE ACTIONS AWAIT ELECTION RESULTS

Tomorrow (Tuesday, Nov. 5), the American electorate will select all 435 members of the House of Representatives, plus a third of the U.S. Senate and a majority of Governors and other state officials. The election will determine which party has majority control of both the House and Senate and, as a result, will determine the agenda of the Congress for the next two years.

With this as a backdrop, governmental actions have ground to a virtual standstill in Washington as everyone awaits the election results. Congress is having only pro-forma sessions (enough to pretend they are not in recess). There have been no significant discussions or compromises on the pending energy bill, either at the staff level or the Member level.

We expect that, when Congress returns for its November “Lame Duck” session next week, it will be a brief session dealing mostly with appropriations bills – and no major push on the energy bill at that time. They will then pass another “continuing resolution” to sometime in December, when they will come back for a second lame duck session to finish the appropriations process. If there is to be an energy bill this year, it is most likely to happen during this second lame duck session.

Exactly what will happen in those two lame duck sessions will depend in large part on the election results. If little changes – if the Democrats keep control of the Senate and Republicans maintain control of the House – there will be some incentive to go ahead and get the contentious issues out of the way. If either side gains significantly – if the R’s take control of the Senate, or the D’s take control of the House – the victorious party might see no reason to compromise now and might prefer to wait on contentious issues until the next Congress.

We’ll have a better picture of where things are headed by the time of our Legislative Committee meeting this Saturday in Chicago, at the Annual Meeting, when the prospects for pending legislation will be reviewed in great detail.  

WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON ELECTION NIGHT

As of this writing, the Washington pundits and observers – including SIGMA’s own lobbyists – are predicting an extremely close election between the two parties in both the Senate and the House, and many extremely close individual races. Predictions range from a very narrow pick-up for the Republicans (1 or 2 Senate seats and 1 or 2 House seats) to a somewhat larger gain for the Democrats (3 or 4 Senate seats and possibly the 6 to 8 House seats needed to make Democrat Gephardt the Speaker), with most suggesting small gains for the Democrats. Washington pundits and pollsters love to “call” elections before the first vote is cast or counted. Ultimately, it is good to remember that the pundits and pollsters almost always have it wrong in some major respect. Here is what our sources tell us to watch for on election night:

•  States from the East Coast will be reporting first, and there are three races which combined may give a clue about national trends. Watch the open Senate race in New Hampshire – Shaheen (D) vs. Sununu (R); the open Senate race in North Carolina – Dole (R) vs. Bowles (D); and the governor’s race in Florida – Bush (R) vs. McBride (D). If the Democrats win all three, the slight Democratic “trend” the pollsters are reporting may well be a tsunami. It is more likely that they will split between the parties.

•  Only twelve Senate seats (out of 34 up for election) are considered to be really “in play”. In addition to NH and NC, they are: Missouri, Minnesota, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, Colorado, South Dakota, Georgia, Texas and New Jersey. Seven are currently held by Democrats, five by Republicans. Republicans need a net gain of only one or two to win back control of the Senate.

•  Expect some “surprises” – seats that the pundits had said were “safe” for one party or the other that end up otherwise.

•  Expect to still be watching beyond Tuesday night. It may take days to count the votes and declare winners – with lots of challenges possible – and it may come down to a runoff election in Louisiana in early December.

•  Be sure YOU get out and vote on election day! If you didn’t, expect to see the “other side” win. This election probably will really turn entirely on the voter turnout.  

LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEE

SIGMA’s Legislative Committee meets during our Annual Meeting in Chicago this Saturday morning, from 9:00 am to noon. At that session, Chairman Art DeBlois will be announcing some significant changes in the way the committee operates in the future. The changes are designed to result in greater member participation in the process, and to expand SIGMA’s reach into issues of regional concern. These changes were discussed and approved by SIGMA’s Long Range Planning Committee in September.

All who are registered for the convention – members and prospective members alike – are welcome and encouraged to attend the Legislative Committee meeting. This is your opportunity to not only hear what’s going on that affects you, but also to have a voice in how SIGMA lobbies on the issues in the future.  

BUSINESS CENSUS

In December, most businesses will receive a questionnaire from the U.S. Census Bureau for the 2002 Business Census. If you receive the form, you are required by law to complete and return it by Feb. 12, 2003. This census is taken once every five years, and forms the baseline for most of the economic statistics developed by the government.    

LOW SULFUR DIESEL

If you market diesel, you NEED to be in Houston Nov. 20-21 for the Industry/EPA Implementation Workshop on Low Sulfur Diesel. Why? Because it will give you advance information, and it will also give you an opportunity to possibly head off unintended consequences of decisions EPA is now making. There are a wide variety of issues affecting marketers, such as: two nozzle sizes during the phase-in, marketer liability for consumer mis-fueling, product transfer document (PTD) requirements, signage requirements, rules for “downgrading” low-sulfur fuel that has become contaminated with additional sulfur, and other transport and storage issues. Click here for complete information, and sign up today! Registration fees go up tomorrow (Tuesday, Nov. 5) and rooms may not be available at the Westin Galleria for much longer.